Nobody claimed victory on Saturday night, and nobody conceded. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said National had "a pathway to forming the next government, but it is too close to call", RNZ reported. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said it "may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said".
Under MMP, finishing first does not make you the government. A party, or a group of parties, needs the support of a majority of MPs. On the preliminary count that means 66 of 131 seats.
Where the numbers sit
On RNZ's preliminary results page, National, ACT and New Zealand First have 67 seats between them. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have 57. Opportunity, in Parliament for the first time, has seven.
Those numbers are not final. Special votes are still being checked, and the Electoral Commission expects to publish official results on 27 November. In the last three elections National lost two seats once specials were counted, RNZ reports.
Who can form a government?
Parties usually reach one of three kinds of arrangement, and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong listed all three as options for her party, RNZ reported:
- A coalition, where parties share ministerial jobs and sit around the Cabinet table together.
- A confidence and supply agreement, where a party agrees to back the government on confidence votes and the Budget but stays outside Cabinet.
- The cross benches, where a party makes no deal and votes issue by issue.
Massey University's Richard Shaw, writing for RNZ and The Conversation, set out three broad scenarios: the current coalition keeps a working majority on its own; the coalition falls just short and needs Opportunity; or Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity have the numbers together. Luxon said during the campaign he would not work with Opportunity.
A different-looking National
Even if the current coalition returns, it will not look the same. National's party vote fell to about 29 percent, from 38.1 percent in 2023, RNZ reported. Finance Minister Nicola Willis, who stood only on the list, is not projected to return on the preliminary count, and Paul Goldsmith (Epsom) and Chris Bishop (Hutt South) lost their electorates. RNZ says the three held 19 ministerial portfolios between them, including finance, justice, transport and housing.
ACT and New Zealand First both increased their party vote, to 10.9 and 9.8 percent. RNZ reported that could give them a stronger hand in any negotiation. "What's clear is nothing's clear tonight," ACT leader David Seymour said.
Opportunity may not get the kingmaker role that was talked up before the election, RNZ noted, because on preliminary numbers the right bloc can govern without it. Wong has said her party will talk first to the largest party.
Who runs the country in the meantime?
The current government does. Luxon said caretaker conventions apply until a new government is formed, and the government's business carries on as usual. "With those final results there can be meaningful negotiations," he said.
Parties can start talking now. RNZ's analysis noted nothing stops them discussing possible arrangements before the official count.
The dates to watch
- 27 November: official results, including special votes, expected from the Electoral Commission.
- Three working days after that: the window for a candidate or party to ask for an electorate recount, RNZ reports.
- 3 December: the latest date for the absolute final result to be announced, according to RNZ.
- 14 January: Shaw says the new Parliament must meet within six weeks of the return of the writs, which puts the deadline at 14 January at the latest. He notes there is no formal requirement for a government to be in place by then, though the political pressure to have one will be strong.
Why it matters if you are a migrant
Immigration policy differs a lot between the parties that could end up sharing power, from residence rules to work visa conditions. Our round-up of immigration pledges from each party sets out what they promised. Which of those survive will depend on the deals struck in the next few weeks.
For the preliminary seat count, see our election results story.
Sources
- www.rnz.co.nz: too close to call wait begins for special votes after cliffhanger election night
- www.rnz.co.nz: election results christopher luxon says outcome too close to call
- www.rnz.co.nz: a knife edge result 3 possible outcomes what comes next after nz s election
- www.rnz.co.nz: election uncertainty what happens now
- www.rnz.co.nz: opportunity s success and what could come next
- www.rnz.co.nz: election 2026 results
- www.electionresults.govt.nz: www.electionresults.govt.nz
